The climate

Extreme weather in the last thousand years

6. March 2018 by Kalte Sonne

Von Georg v. Petersdorff

Today, extreme weather events around the world are known all over the world in a short space of time and are often presented as a result of climate change, which is of course caused by humans who are pumping the evil carbon dioxide into the air. In the past, without modern communication technology, many weather disasters and their causes (volcanic eruptions) remained unknown if they did not occur locally. This creates the impression that there are more extreme weather events today than in the past. Whether this is true will be the subject of the following article.

Usually, yesterday's weather is quickly forgotten. This also applies to a limited extent to weather anomalies. Special weather events stay in the memory a little longer if they coincide with historic events, or are so extreme that they are themselves a historical event. And of course, in order to remember, you need the chronicler who wrote everything down. In my search for these chroniclers (sources), I found "Das Jahrtausendwetter" in the FAZ and Dr. F. Hamm, "Naturkundliche Chronik Norddeutschlands", and various other sources. Based on this, I would like to look at the weather anomalies in century steps, as far as they are documented.

Over the past thousand years there have been cooler and warmer periods which spanned several centuries and can therefore be described as climate change. The period from around 800 AD to around 1300 is known as the Medieval Warm Period. It was probably much warmer than it is today, which can be assumed because of the extensive wine growing in Northern Europe and the farming in Greenland. The next 600 years were much cooler than today, known as the so-called "Little Ice Age". It ended around 1850. From then on it got warmer again, with interruptions. This documented climate change says nothing about the individual weather phenomena, however, because the warmer periods had extremely cold winters and rainy summers, and the cooler periods had extremely warm winters and heat with droughts in the summer. But let's let the chroniclers speak for themselves.

The eleventh century falls into the Middle Ages warm period. Not many weather events are known at that time. At least we do know that the Alpine glaciers had melted to a similar extent to today. The winter of 1011/12 was hard and long, and marked the outbreak of the plague in northern Germany. The harsh winter of 1076/77 caused a great deal of controversy, and not only because it brought hardship to the agricultural economy and hunger. This winter has become history under the keyword "Canossa". Emperor Henry IV had to give in to a dispute with Pope Gregory VII and, dressed in penitent robes and barefoot in the snow, asked for the ban to be lifted on January 25 in central Italy. Such a connection between history and weather is rare. It was probably the coldest winter this century, because when rivers freeze over so that you can cross them on foot, it was colder than we are used to, and here it was not only the rivers in Germany, but even the Tiber in Italy and the Ebro in Spain were frozen over so that you could walk from one bank to the other.

In contrast, the winter of 1072/73 was so mild that the trees blossomed by New Year's Day and the birds had already had their young in February. Of course, storms were also among the unusual weather events. The most common are those that triggered storm surges, because many people lost their lives within a short space of time. Storm surges that are recorded occurred in the years 1012, 1015, 1016, 1017, 1041 and 1066. The frequency of damaging floods shows two things. Firstly, the coasts were not yet protected by dikes at that time, and secondly, it also shows that rising sea levels cost land. Sea levels have been rising continuously since the end of the Ice Age. 10,000 years ago, they were so low that England was still connected to the mainland and the Thames was a tributary of the Rhine. There have been reliable water level measurements for around 400 years, which indicate a continuous rise of around 2mm per year, which corresponds to a rise of 20 cm per century. However, despite occasional horror reports, there is no sign of an acceleration in the rise in water level measurements.

The climate

Extreme weather in the 12th century

The 12th century is also part of the Middle Ages warm period. Accordingly, warm winters and hot summers are often reported. And chroniclers repeatedly point to the widespread cultivation of wine throughout Northern Europe. But cold records are also described, as are devastating storm surges. A local but terrible event occurred in 1120 in the villages around Halberstadt, when a heavy hailstorm killed not only birds but also oxen in the pasture. In 1126, there are reports of a cold winter that killed birds in the air. Cold and long winters were synonymous with famine at that time, and people weakened by hunger were susceptible to the plague.

In 1137, a summer of heat and drought caused numerous fires, and the old town of Goslar also fell victim to these conflagrations. Chroniclers report extraordinary storm floods in 1144, 1162, 1164, 1170 and 1171. All of these storm floods ravaged the North and East Frisian coasts. It was particularly bad on February 17, 1164. This flood not only allegedly killed 100,000 people, but the Jade Bay was created through land theft. This storm also caused severe damage inland. Thunderstorms and heavy rain caused the Weser and Elbe to overflow their banks and flood large areas of land. As a result of this so-called Julian flood, many survivors moved to the poor but safe geest ridge between Aurich and Norden.

The second half of the 12th century seems to have been much warmer than the first. Extraordinary summer heat and drought are mentioned for 1172 and 1173. In 1182, winter seems to have been far from over, because by February there were not only blossoms but also small fruits on the trees. It was not much colder in 1185, when the buds on the trees were already swelling during Advent, and in January 1186 the leaves sprouted and the trees blossomed. However, there was then a bitter setback with frosts in March and snow at Pentecost. In 1192, the winter must have been cold and horrible again. Emperor Henry VI was stationed with his army camp outside Braunschweig, but hungry wolves repeatedly attacked the camp and killed horses and oxen, so that the camp had to be abandoned. The 12th century ends with a lot of rain, especially in 1195, which spoiled the harvest on the stalk and caused a great famine again until 1197

Extreme weather in the 13th century

The 13th century, the last of the Medieval Warm Period, was once again good for the people, with the exception of the coastal areas. The almost annual storm surges destroyed large areas of land and changed the North Sea coast. Many people repeatedly lost their lives in the unprotected coastal regions. The storm surge on January 16, 1219 alone is said to have killed over 36,000 people, and the Jade Bay was washed out deeper and deeper. On the other hand, the population increased many times over, from the end of the migration period around 500 to the present. Trade and industry flourished in this warmer period. It was the time when cities were founded and large cathedrals were built as an expression of prosperity. More land was needed to feed the many people, so forests had to be cleared. Places ending in “Rode” still bear witness to this practice today. But even in this century, which was poorer in extreme weather, there were colder winters than we know them, such as in 1233 when all the major rivers in northern Germany froze over in January. On the whole, however, mild winters predominated, such as 1235/36 and 1258/59 or 1287 when the fruit blossom began in January. The glaciers in the Alps melted back significantly. Mediterranean plants found their way over the Alps. Figs were successfully grown in the Cologne area.

Extreme weather in the 14th century

If the 13th century can be described as a pleasant century for the people of Germany and Europe, the opposite is true for the next century. Of course, there were local storms with thunderstorms, storms and floods in all centuries, including the 13th, but these are not the ones we are talking about here. As in previous times, the storm surges on the North Sea coast are the main focus of the chroniclers. Fifteen severe storm surges are mentioned because they claimed many lives and resulted in large amounts of land being lost. The worst was probably that of January 16, 1362, which went down in history as the great man's flood. The current coastline was largely created by this flood. In addition to the damaging storm surges, this century is mainly characterized by wetness, flooding and cold inland.

A particularly wet period lasted from 1313 to 1317, with a peak in 1315. In that year, it rained continuously from April to November, accompanied by strong winds and thunderstorms, and rivers overflowed their banks over large areas from the Paris Basin to the Baltic. Many people drowned in the raging floods. The grain grew, the hay rotted, and hunger spread throughout Europe. The year without a summer was followed by another one in 1316. This was preceded by the dry years of 1303 and 1304. The Weser and many other rivers dried up at times. People will have long remembered this drought in the cool and wet summers that followed, which lasted from 1340 to 1380.

The 1340s were the most terrible. After a very hard winter in 1341, Germany was hit by a flood in August 1342, the likes of which would not be surpassed in this millennium. In Konstanz, the water overflowed the city walls. In the cathedral in Mainz, the water was 3 m high. The years 1345 to 1347 were completely out of the ordinary. They were the coldest in this millennium. In August 1346, the wine in Lindau was still in bloom. This lack of heat could have been caused by the super-eruption of a volcano in the tropics. The tongues of the Alpine glaciers pushed forward as a result.

The term "Little Ice Age" is particularly apt for this period. Another consequence of this weather pattern was the recurring famines and the vulnerability of the weakened people to the plague, which was now ravaging the whole of Europe. It is assumed that the population in Europe decreased by at least 30% in just a few years. Many of the villages founded in the previous years fell into ruin. From 1380 onwards, however, this century bids a friendly farewell. The Azores High again spread more frequently to Central Europe and brought two extremely dry summers in 1387 and 1397 with low water levels in the rivers and grain already ripe in May. Fortunately, such fluctuations in the weather are unknown to us.

Extreme weather in the 15th century

A comparison with the 15th century shows how poor the 20th century was in terms of truly extreme weather. You could say it went from one extreme to the other. The winter of 1407/8 was extremely harsh. Rivers such as the Weser and Elbe froze over and could be navigated with heavy loads. In the spring it didn't stop raining. Under such conditions it was almost impossible to harvest any crops and once again people's lives were dominated by high prices and hunger. And then just 12 years later, in 1420, there was a winter so mild that the first grapes could be harvested in May. Just 13 years later, in 1443, on May 1st it was so cold that the ice was as thick as a hand. The cold lasted until June and left behind great damage to nature. In 1424 the frost also covered the Weser with a thick layer of ice, but in December 1427 the fruit trees bloomed. In 1468 there was another rainy summer with floods in the Brunswick region. Most of the grain could not be harvested.



The following winter brought such masses of snow that many roofs could not withstand the load, and there was also major damage in the forests due to snow breakage. In 1473 the pendulum swung back again. An unusually hot, dry summer in which not a drop of rain fell in northern Germany from mid-April to September 8th caused the trees to shed their leaves and the fruit to fall to the ground unripe. Fires destroyed large areas in the Black Forest, Harz and Thuringian Forest. When it finally rained again in September, the grass sprouted and the trees grew leaves again. Another mild, snowless winter followed in 1478/79, in which the cherries were already in bloom in January. Of course, there were also numerous storms in this century, especially on the coast, which are described by the chroniclers. The worst was probably that of April 10th, 1446, which was accompanied by terrible cold and snowfall. It is said to have engulfed 16 coastal towns. The death toll was estimated at 100,000. It was to be expected that in a century like this, in which crops were destroyed by recurring weather disasters and people were starving, the plague would return again. In Dortmund alone, which was still a small city at the time, over 2,000 people died.

Extreme weather in the 16th century

The 16th century was characterized by cold winters and some hot and dry summers, i.e. an arid climate. However, this only applied until around 1580, after which the summer months were also cold and wet. This meant that conditions for agriculture were extremely unfavorable. Hunger and high prices were the result, and the plague also returned.

Cold winters according to the criteria for "extreme" used here are winters in which the large rivers such as the Weser and Elbe freeze over and can be crossed with loads. There were eight such winters in this century: 1508, 1514, 1517, 1554, 1564/15, 1567/68, 1569, 1570/71, 1573/74. In the last two winters, 3,000 red deer are said to have died in the Reinhardswald and the Lenzinger Heide respectively. In contrast, only four extremely mild winters are recorded according to this definition: 1521/22, 1529/30, 1570, and 1577/78. All of these winters showed blossoms and leaves on the trees as early as December or January. Phenomena that we today have probably never seen. The predominantly cold and, at the end, snowy winters caused the glacier tongues in the Alps to protrude far forward. Only four extremely hot and, above all, dry summers are recorded: 1520, 1540, 1556 and 1590.

Of course there were storms in this century too. Ten times such an event was described as a "severe storm surge". Since such storms occur 10 to 15 times in every century, the term "extreme" is perhaps not appropriate. But from the perspective of the damage caused to land and human life, it is. The greatest damage in this century was probably caused by the storm on 1 and 2 November 1570. Despite the dike construction that had already begun, large areas of land on the Jade Bay and Dollart were lost again. Estimates of the number of fatalities vary between 100,000 and 400,000.

Extreme weather in the 17th century

The 17th century was marked by the "Little Ice Age". Cold, long winters combined with wet, cool summers were the norm. However, this was not the only scourge of this century. The Thirty Years' War devastated vast areas of land and plunged people into death and destruction. And then there was the plague, to which people were helplessly exposed. In the mining town of Clausthal-Zellerfeld alone, a third of the population died within a year. The witch craze continued to cause terrible suffering, with thousands of women falling victim. It was only towards the end of the century that people slowly began to realize that there were no witches who could be held responsible for other people's misfortune. And, although we may laugh about it today, wolves were a real plague in Germany, as the following reports show: 1648, 186 wolves were killed in the area of the Celle hunting estate, 1649, Duke Friedrich of Celle shot 168 wolves in that year alone. The tithe payments of lambs to the city of Hanover were not made because the wolves killed all the lambs. 1659, The rampant wolves of the Solling region broke into houses in Stadtoldendorf. We should not let it get that far again

The following cold winters which can be described as "extreme" are recorded: 1600/01 lasted until Pentecost, 1607/08 lasted until mid-June, 1645/46, 1657/58 the Danish Sounds froze over, and in 1667/68, 1669/70 and 1683/84 the north German rivers froze over. Extremely cold and wet summers occurred in 1632, 1660 and 1692. Such summers quite simply meant that there was no grain harvest. Inconceivable from today's perspective. The fact that large storm surges continued to overcome the still too weak dikes was certainly also a scourge for the coastal residents. Chroniclers report storm surges which recur almost every year. However, the damage is only mentioned in the case of the really big floods. There were of course thunderstorms and floods inland too, such as on November 26th. 1630. As in the previous century reports, there were exceptions, only one very mild winter was reported, with everything green and blossoming at the turn of the year, which is also extreme. Hot and, above all, dry summers were only reported four times. Wine growing is gradually retreating from the northern regions.

Extreme weather in the 18th century

Several times, memories of extreme weather in this century are linked to other historical events. The coldest and longest winter of this century was experienced in 1739/40, the year in which Frederick II the Great was enthroned. Winter began with severe frosts in October, so that the farmers could not even plough their fields; it lasted until June. On June 17, the apple blossoms, which had only just begun to bloom, froze. All rivers, the Zuider Zee, and the Danish Sounds were covered with a thick layer of ice. As the previous winters had been harsh and the summers cool and wet, there was great famine. The king therefore had the state warehouses opened to alleviate the misery somewhat. People were also desperately looking for fuel.

Another historical connection between the memories is the winter of 1788/89, on the eve of the French Revolution. The famine that swept through France that year is said to be one of the triggers for the revolution. The arrogant response of Queen Marie Antoniette to the complaint that the subjects had no bread, "then they should eat cake," is said to have been the last straw. The 1788 harvest was also poor due to another weather event. It is reported that the grain in large parts of France suffered a heat shock in June, which damaged the development of the grain.

Another extreme weather event occurred from January 5th to 7th, 1709. During this period, a roller of arctic air at -20°C moved south through Central Europe at a speed of 40 km per hour, causing great damage to frost-sensitive plants in the Mediterranean region. In the 18th century, the thermometer improved by Anders Celsius was used, which means that not only the temperature of the cold air roller is recorded, but also a minimum temperature of 35.5°C is recorded for Bremen in the winter of 88/89.

It is obvious that extreme weather in the Little Ice Age is primarily reported on cold events. In addition to those already mentioned, cold and long winters that deserve the adjective "extreme" were the winters of 1729/30, 1757/58, 1765/66, 1766/67, 1767/68, 1784/85, 1785/86, 1794/95 and 1798/99. But there was also a short period from around 1715 to 1735 in which at least the summer temperatures were high and the summer months were often very dry. The summers of 1718, 19, 24 and 27 could be described as extreme. This so-called small heat peak favored the agricultural boom in the 20s and early 30s, which then collapsed again and marked the rest of the century as an agricultural crisis. There have also been plenty of storms and floods in this century, but which of these were extreme and which were normal is certainly a matter of judgement. On the coast, the damage decreased somewhat because the dikes gradually improved. However, this says little about the strength and frequency of the winds.

Extreme weather in the 19th century

On April 11, 1815, the Tambora volcano east of Java exploded. 150 cubic kilometers of ash were thrown into the air and obscured the sun as far as India. Part of the ash cloud was distributed around the globe in the stratosphere by high altitude winds. In the years that followed, this veil of ash reflected some of the sunlight and disrupted the weather. For Europe, but also for North America and Canada, 1816 was the year without a summer. In Europe, arctic cold air penetrated from Iceland as far as the Alps and then further down the Rhone Valley and spread as far as Tunisia. This was a large-scale extreme weather event. Cold and constant rain caused the hay to go moldy and the grain to grow on the stalks. Hunger and inflation were the result. Cold springs, summers and autumns dominated the weather in the first half of the century. A final relapse into the "Little Ice Age" at the beginning of the 1850s triggered a wave of emigration to North America in Europe due to poor harvests. It is difficult to say to what extent the entire period of cold, wet weather was due to the volcanic eruption or was part of natural climate change. In any case, chroniclers mention many local thunderstorms, floods, especially inland, ice flows on rivers and also drought periods, but not extreme weather according to the criteria used here so far, with this exception.

In the second half of the 19th century, not only did the weather improve, but progress in agricultural management, promoted by people such as Albrecht Daniel Thaer and Justus von Liebig, became noticeable. Crop rotation, fertilization, breeding and the use of machines are the key words here. The emancipation of the peasants also contributed significantly to the stabilization of yields, so that periods of hunger were gradually eliminated.

Extreme weather in the 20th century

The 20th century began with the prophecy "Year of Fire - Year of Flood - Year of Blood". This refers to the years 1911, 1912 and 1913. Whether this is really a prophecy or a subsequent construct will not be examined here. This statement also has the flaw that the Year of Blood (the beginning of World War I) only began in 1914. But the fact is that 1911 was actually an extremely hot, dry year. Weather statistics describe it as the warmest year from 1874 to 1946. Temperatures of 25°C were measured as early as March. In July it was already 34°C in Berlin and 39°C in Jena. In Zurich, 42 days with temperatures over 30°C were recorded. On June 28, the session of the Prussian state parliament in Berlin was cancelled due to the heat. Large parts of the USA were also affected by this heat wave. The impact on agriculture was significant, but not as bad as the following year, the so-called flood year. In 1912 it rained almost every day from August 1st to the end of September. Rivers overflowed their banks and the harvest in the fields spoiled, so that hunger and high prices still prevailed. I myself learned about this weather combination from our old farm master Richard Fischer, who experienced this time personally.

A series of cold, snowy winters shows that global warming did not continue after the Little Ice Age. The winters of 1900/01, 1928/29, 1941/42, 1946/47 and 1962/63 were severe. In 1962, a large storm surge hit northern Germany and endangered Hamburg. Many people were killed. An almost equally violent storm crossed the northern German lowlands on November 13th. Both devastated huge areas of forest. In 2018, the same areas were partially affected again after more than 50 years, at least in the Soling area and the northern Harz foreland. Domestic floods include the Rhine flood near Cologne in 1995, the Oder flood in 1997 and the Elbe flood in 2002 (21st century).

Extreme weather conclusion

Even if we assume that the chroniclers are exaggerating a little, it is clear that extreme weather in the past occurred more often, not less frequently, and that these events were not less serious, but worse, than what we are experiencing today. Compared to the past 1,000 years, we live in a quieter time today. The 13th century seems to me to be the most similar to the 20th century. Hunger in a globalized economy is no longer imaginable, at least in the so-called developed countries. The weather still influences market prices today, as can be seen even with small weather deviations, such as a late frost in April 2017. The blossoms on the fruit trees froze and cherries and apples were scarce and expensive.



What would happen today if, as in all the centuries of the Little Ice Age, the rivers in Europe froze over, or winter lasted from October to June? How would we react if rainfall and floods, or heat and drought reached the proportions described by the chroniclers? And who can guarantee that it won't happen again, after all, extreme weather has always existed, regardless of whether the climate was colder or warmer. It seems that there were slightly fewer weather deviations from the "normal" in the warmer periods. But that may also be because the cold extremes are more harmful to us humans than the warm ones. It should also be clear that we humans cannot prevent extreme weather, nor can we conjure it up, not even with carbon dioxide.

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To learn CO2 increased by 0.01 % in the last 160 years

Climate change? A professor analyses the situation

Eifel: The showdown is underway. Everything is coming to a head on September 20th. The day on which the climate cabinet will meet and is supposed to give us suggestions on how we in Germany should "save" the world's climate. The Fridays for Future movement is mobilizing across the country and is not even stopping at kindergarten children. "Listen to the science!" is one of Greta's central slogans. To do this, politicians and the media would first have to allow the entire spectrum of scientific opinions on climate change and human complicity to be heard. And then it remains to be seen whether young people, children and parents would still shout the FfF messages or whether they would rather "Let the plants use their CO2 to grow!"

The natural scientist Professor Klaus D. Döhler from Hanover is a biologist. He has left the climate debate to his colleagues who have been dealing with climate change for years. After constant one-sided reporting on CO2 and climate change, he has now joined in. He fears for the reputation of science as a whole. Particularly in light of the fact that many scientists now contradict the alleged consensus that humans are causing the current climate change.

In keeping with the way an independent scientist works, he conducted open-ended research on the Internet and read scientific publications to compile a list of pros and cons on man-made climate change.

This happened at the same time as the appointment of the Federal Government's Climate Cabinet. In three open letters, Döhler has now confronted the Climate Cabinet, the Chancellor and members of various parties with results on climate change that a reader in Germany can rarely find in a newspaper, let alone hear from the mouth of a politician. He is non-partisan - a critic of the mainstream has to say that when he introduces himself - no friend of Donald Trump and does not earn a cent from his research.

EIFELON: Professor Döhler, please share your most important results with our readers.

Professor Döhler: First of all, what is weather and what is climate? Weather is the state of the atmosphere at a place and at a certain time. Weather is immediately noticeable to humans and animals and has a direct impact on their well-being. Weather data can be measured and recorded. There is no such thing as average weather or global weather. Climate is a statistical view of weather data from the past. You can define as many different views of the old data as you like. Statistics (climate) never influence the data (weather). Since weather is only defined locally, there is no geographically averaged "average climate" and certainly no "global climate". Incidentally, "climate science" does not exist either. Self-proclaimed climate scientists come from various areas of the natural sciences.

EIFELON: What about the terms “climate protection” and “climate rescue”?

Professor Döhler: That's nonsense, of course. The climate is merely a statistical view of data and cannot be saved. What does the climate savior want to save? The data?

EIFELON: Who do you think benefits from climate hysteria?

Professor Döhler: The members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), who themselves write in their 2001 climate report, on page 774, that a long-term prediction of the climate system is not possible. The self-proclaimed "climate researchers" benefit, in Germany for example the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Its former director Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber advises the Chancellor as a member of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). He has made the "decarbonization" of our society his banner. In other words, a new global social model that generates the energy it needs exclusively from wind and sun and without other fossil fuels. Politically, the Greens in particular benefit. In business, the beneficiaries of the energy transition.

EIFELON: You criticize the political and social exaggeration of the IPCC’s theses.

Professor Döhler: Yes. The IPCC is a cross-governmental working group with bureaucrats and a clear political agenda. Some of the bureaucrats are scientists and they draw on general research findings. But they choose who they want to involve and make sure that most of them sing the same song. The aim is to prove that man-made factors are involved in climate change. Independent research into the climate is not on the IPCC's agenda. This means that the founding mission of the cross-governmental IPCC is not to scientifically research climate change, but to prove that it is man who is responsible for global warming.

EIFELON: People in Germany constantly hear that there is a consensus among scientists that humans are responsible for global warming.

Professor Döhler: For thousands of international scientists, including Nobel Prize winners, the claim that humans have caused climate change is unproven. For more than 25 years, scientists have been fighting against this claim with petitions to the governments of the world. Politicians are not paying attention to the experts. People are being lied to and deceived about the climate. Supposedly in the interest of the good cause of phasing out fossil fuels and developing a new post-fossil global economic model without coal and oil.

EIFELON: Can you give an example of a false claim?

Professor Döhler: The study most frequently cited regarding such a "consensus" is the "Consensus Study" by John Cook and colleagues from 2013. The authors claim that "among the abstracts [summary of a scientific publication, editor's note], 97.1 percent confirmed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming." The question is not whether we are causing global warming, but whether we are responsible for most of the recent warming, whether warming is dangerous, and whether we should abandon energy production from affordable, reliable and abundant fossil resources and replace it with poor, expensive and unreliable "renewables" in an effort to stop climate change. Cook's study was also criticized in another study by David Legates and colleagues (2015). He examined the same studies as Cook and found that the actual consensus in their abstracts was only 0.3 percent.

EIFELON: Your message to the Climate Cabinet?

Professor Döhler: Plants need sun, water, CO2 and minerals to live. CO2 is the only carbon source. Without CO2 there would be no life on earth. Nothing better can happen to the environment and our crops than an increase in CO2 concentration.

EIFELON: You have to explain that to us.

Professor Döhler: 500 million years ago, the CO2 levels in the Earth's atmosphere were more than 20 times higher (7,000 ppm) than the pre-industrial level of around 300 ppm. 230 million years ago, they were only five times higher (1,500 ppm) and have been falling steadily since then. Today's level, which has risen again compared to the pre-industrial era, is only 400 ppm and is therefore still dangerously close to the lower limit of 150-180 ppm that is lethal for plants. Readers may be interested to know that despite extensive deforestation worldwide, a green area twice the size of the USA has been added since 1982. This is shown by satellite data. Researchers attribute more than two thirds of this additional plant growth to CO2.

EIFELON: Who else benefits from CO2?

Professor Döhler: CO2 is incorporated into the calcium shells of countless marine animals. Calcium (CaCO3) consists of calcium, carbon and oxygen. Marine animals get their carbon from the CO2 that is dissolved in the water in high concentrations. If we ask ourselves where all the CO2 has gone that has fallen from 7,000 ppm to a measly 400 ppm over the past 500 million years, we look at the high limestone mountains or the many coral reefs in the oceans. They have all been built up from dead mollusks or from coral metabolism. This would not have been possible without CO2. When coral reefs die, it is not because there is too much CO2 dissolved in the water, but because there is too little. (When sea water warms up, it can bind less CO2, and the CO2 is released into the atmosphere in greater quantities, ed.) So what is the point of the nonsensical and counterproductive proposal to reduce CO2 emissions, whatever the cost? Or even the futile effort to remove CO2 from the air? In an instant, CO2 from the oceans would restore the CO2 balance with the air. Fortunately for the environment on land, but then to the detriment of the shellfish. Richard Tol, professor of climate change economics and consultant for the IPCC, recommends that it would be only slightly more expensive to find a strategy to adapt to climate change rather than trying to prevent it by drastically reducing CO2.

EIFELON: Who is then responsible for the temperature rise?

Professor Döhler: The IPCC does not attribute any significant role to solar activity in global warming. Khabibullo Abdussamatow, head of the space research laboratory at the Pulkovo main observatory near St. Petersburg, disagrees: On Mars, which is very low in CO2, and on Earth, global warming occurred in parallel due to a significant and permanent increase in solar activity in the 20th century. Above all, the increase in temperature on our neighboring planet cannot be attributed to human activities. The activity of the solar cycles is decreasing in the 21st century. A solar minimum will be reached by 2041. This will also provoke a significant cooling on Earth in the years 2055 to 2060, says Abdussamatow.

EIFELON: In your opinion, are there other false messages about climate change?

Professor Döhler: Although the ice at the North Pole has been decreasing since 1982, it has also increased at the South Pole and in the Asian glaciers. The atolls in the South Seas and the coral reefs are increasing, not decreasing. Severe storms in the northern and southern hemispheres, typhoons and hurricanes, are decreasing, not increasing.

EIFELON: You are demanding that false forecasters should be punished.

Professor Döhler: Yes, I agree with the opinion of my ecology colleague Josef Reichholf. In a letter to the editor, he demanded that forecasters should be held accountable if the consequences of their forecasts cost the public a lot of money, or if the forecasts that cost money turn out to be completely wrong. As a rule, it is our hard-earned tax money that is being played with.

EIFELON: Mr. Döhler, thank you for the interview.

500 European scientists from 15 EU countries, from technical and scientific disciplines, are currently preparing an open letter to the new EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. In it, they stress that CO2 is not a climate killer. The rise in temperature is also perfectly normal within the framework of the earth's natural climate cycles and has no human cause.

An EU climate policy must be “based on scientific and economic realities.” There is no climate emergency and therefore no reason for panic and alarm.

They also recommend that European leaders make a clear distinction in their policies between the Earth's environment and the Earth's climate: "Protecting our environment is a matter of responsibility. However, climate change is largely caused by a complex combination of natural phenomena that we cannot control."

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